"Cyclicality of Wages and Union Power" (2017), Labour Economics, 48, 1-22,
"Stock vs. Bond Yields, and Demographic Fluctuations" (with Arie E. Gozluklu) Revise and resubmit, Journal of Banking and Finance
This paper analyzes the strong comovement between real stock and nominal bond yields at generational (low) frequencies. We develop a stochastic overlapping generations model with cash-in-advance constraints, and we show that the simulated life-cycle patterns in savings behavior explains the positive correlation between financial yields. We argue that both real stock and nominal bond yields comove with the changing population age structure, and that these persistent comovements account for the equilibrium relation between stock and bond markets. Moreover, we decompose nominal bonds yields into real (real bond yields and risk premium) and nominal (inflation) components, and obtain that demographic changes affect nominal yields mainly through its effect on the real channel. Using both U.S data and a cross-country panel, we find empirical evidence supporting these predictions. Finally, we relate cross-country differences in the comovement between stock and bond markets to the cross-country differences in the magnitude of the demographic effect on real yields.
"Job-to-Job Transitions, Sorting, and Wage Growth” (with David Jinkins) Submitted
In this paper, we measure the contribution of match quality to the wage growth experienced by job movers. Using the Danish matched employer-employee data, we reject the exogenous mobility assumption needed to estimate a standard fixedeffects wage regression. To estimate firm fixed effects, we exploit the sub-sample of workers hired from unemployment, for whom the exogenous mobility assumption is not rejected. Then we decompose the mean and the variance of wage growth of job-to-job movers. We find that most of the wage growth experienced by job movers is attributable to an improvement in the quality of the worker-firm match rather than transitions to better firms. Also, 66% of the variance of wage growth experienced by job movers can be attributed to variance in match quality. Expected match quality growth is higher for higher-skilled occupations and high-educated workers.
"Wage Dispersion over the Business Cycle" Submitted
In this paper, I establish that residual wage dispersion, i.e. dispersion of wages within narrowly defined demographic and skill groups of workers, behaved procyclically in the U.S. over the period 1967-2014. Moreover, I provide a rationale for the procyclical properties of residual wage dispersion by studying a search model with wage-posting and endogenous job offer arrival rates. I analyze the channels through which the business cycle influences the shape of the residual wage distribution. The presence of search frictions gives firms monopsony power, i.e. power to impose wage levels on workers, and generates differences in wage policy across firms. The speed at which workers can move to other jobs affects the degree of firms competition over workers, and impacts the extent to which firms exploit their monopsony power. Therefore, in booms, the value of workers’ outside option goes up as the quantity and the quality of job offers increase, and this, in turn, erodes firms’ monopsony power in wage setting. In consequence, firms post more high-paying vacancies. Such strategic reaction of firms thickens the upper tail of the wage distribution, shifts the mass of the wages to the right and, as a result, generates a larger residual wage dispersion.
"Capital Market Shocks and Inequality” (with Gunes Gokmen)
"Job-to-Job Transition and the Value of Matching" (with Rasmus Lentz) "Collective Wage Bargaining with Credible Threats" (with Christian Haefke) "Rising Procyclicality of Wages: What Role for Trade Unions?" "Labor Market Adjustments and Wage Inequality over the Business Cycle”